We build proprietary models to forecast different aspects of the health industry for each country, through combining health and epidemiology parameters with demographic and socioeconomic factors.
Our forecasts range from epidemiology (disease or health condition), affordable market, price sensitivity to healthcare expenditure, macroeconomics and wellness, and help clients to master their market and optimize different stages of their business planning, whether new product entry, pricing, health economics, or R&D strategy etc.
More specifically the forecasts include- although not for all markets:
Our forecasts are provided as
Our proprietary models are essentially econometric in style- combining health and epidemiology parameters with demographic and socioeconomic factors.
We have a large historic database dating back 30 years, which “feeds” into our models. The healthcare expenditure, demographic and socioeconomic data is primarily from published government sources of each country. It is “supported” from other agencies as this helps check the consistency of the interpretation of the data. Governments typically engage in a census and by-census at regular intervals and we supplement that with information from the inter year samples, annual household income expenditure surveys,annual labour forecast studies, annual national health accounts etc. By using multiple sources of data from different agencies within the same government we are able to develop a more complete picture of what the demographic and socio-economic landscape is like and the dynamics taking place within it. The epidemiology data is from government sources, disease registries, published medical journals and other well recognized sources.
We look for consistency of relationships across countries of similar affluence and education levels (and for epidemiology ethnic groups) and to the extent that there are differences the possible reasons are investigated.
The database is harmonized as much as possible to facilitate modeling and hence consistency of forecasting process.
The database is updated at least once a year, and for many countries there are interim updates with the release of household income and expenditure surveys, labour force surveys etc, throughout the year. When updating, we always check the consistency of the most recent data with the preceding series for the same variable. We acquire the source document (or online database) for all data that we include in the database thereby allowing items to be back-checked when necessary.
Our forecasts are derived through combining health and epidemiology parameters with demographic and socioeconomic factors.
The key drivers of the overall model are education and birth rates. Education is projected by using the current education profile of the adult population and then modifying that year by year taking into account the profile of those exiting the education system each year as well as the education profile of those who die each year.
An Education Index is then used to drive the projected trends in urbanisation, occupation profile, productivity per worker and household size. Time series trends drives birth rates, death rates and education enrollments.
For total healthcare expenditure forecast the key parameter is the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare. Epidemiology forecasts are dependent on the changes in disease rate and the population age profile. The forecast of disease rate by age and gender is driven (within our models) by the relationships in actual historical rate changes, the change in causal (aetiological) agents, expected lifestyle changes, urbanization and natural history of the disease within country, ethnic group and across geographies. These rates are then applied to the forecasted population by age and gender (and where available urban and rural) to derive the number of people with the disease. The prevalent population is linked to their incomes and expenditure and this enables us to forecast the affordable market by price.
The user is expected to use these forecasts as a base point - if the past relationships and trends continue then this is what will happen. That means they are a defensible base line - all changes can be related back to a past trend or relationship (and then ultimately source data) rather than the opinion of an individual.
In working form, the key projections are run to 2050 to see the long term impact of the projected trends. However, we only publish 20 years beyond latest actual, with confidence obviously being higher for 10 year forecasts.