Adding Epidemiological Data

Often epidemiological data is confidential in which case you can insert it ‘on site’ and no other party sees it thereby retaining confidentiality.

However, if that is not the case do note that Global Demographics Healthcare has epidemiological data for a wide range of conditions by country which can be purchased as part of this model. Please refer to these pages to see what is currently available.  

To add your own data please complete the following steps:


Select the sheet labeled ‘Epi Data’

As shown in the figure opposite, Two empty tables should display - one for Males and another for Females (scroll down to see that table)

 
epi data input.JPG

Specify the data being entered

At the top left of the page. enter the name of the condition for which you have the data. Make sure it is unique for the currently selected country.

Select whether the data is ‘Incidence’ or ‘Prevalence’ and also the base for the data. Typically incidence is persons per 100,000 and prevalence is per 100 or as a percent. However, you can vary from this if you wish.


Data entry

Option 1: Have data for all age groups for all years

For each gender enter the epidemiological rate into the cells by age by year. You can copy from another excel workbook and paste to this if the format is the same - ie age groups on the horizontal axis and years in the vertical axis.

Option 2: If the data is not complete within a year

epi data step 1.JPG

This is where there is data for only some age groups within a single year

In this case enter the values you have into the appropriate cells This is shown in the example opposite,

epi data step 2.JPG

Then press the ‘Fill’ button and for each year that there is data the program will estimate the shape of the curve for the data you have on that year. Obviously if you enter only two points in a year then the fill will be a linear line - so the more observations per year the better the estimate. The second image on the right is an example of ‘Fill’ being applied to the set of data in the image above it.

Option 3: Data missing for historic years

After completing entering the data for each of the years for which you have data and select ‘Fill’ to complete those years (Option 2 above) and if you have missing years between the first year 2005 and the last year of your data then the program will fill in for the intervening years using a linear trend.


epi data step 3.JPG

Forecasting

There are three ways of doing a forecast.

The simple way:

The model will forecast the trend using time series from the last known year (from the data you entered above) to the last year in the table - 2037. You can choose to use either a linear model (straight line best fit) or a power function (declining rate of change ). If (for example) you choose linear and the result does not look right you can click ‘Power’ and it will re-estimate and overwrite the cell values. So easy to select which is best. The image opposite shows the result from selecting ‘Power’ to apply to the data set in the image above.


If you have some prior as to the values in later years

You enter values for each age group in the last year you have a ‘view’ on reflecting what you think will be the trend and the model will then fill between your last known data and that year and continue the trend to the last year in the table (2037). If you feel that the trend is not strictly linear you can choose ‘Power’ and that will move it from a linear line

The more complex way:

Enter an estimated value for intervening years between your last know data year and the last year of the table (2027) For example last known year is 2016, you expect the historic levels to remain in effect to 2020 and then a vaccination program comes into effect after that year to halve the prevalence rate by 2027 In that case enter your 2016 value into the 2020 line and then half those values in the 2027 line and then press linear or power to fill in the intervening years for each age group through to 2037.


Saving Your Data

Finally, once the data table is completed press the button ‘Save to File’ and the data will be saved to an internal file with the name being a composite of the selected country and condition. Once this is done it is added to the drop down menu for the currently selected country on the ‘Dashboard’ page and can be recalled by selecting it there.


Next Manual Section: The Output Table