Setting Parameters Page
This page allows you to set the parameters for the model.
This table should be completed before a solution is created for the first time. Otherwise a generic scenario is loaded and that may not be appropriate to the country or condition. (see below for steps on completing this form).
Average Market Price (US$)
This is the price of a course of treatment with this drug for a year. It is in US$s
The model uses this to calculate the overall market value for a generic price. Do note that when calculating market value it takes into account compliance rate (the next column). That is, if the price is US$100, but the compliance rate is 80%, then the price used for determining overall market value is US$100 * 0.8 = US$80 thereby reflecting the true expenditure to patients.
This is the estimated extent to which patients comply with a course of treatment. If they are supposed to take it for (say) 10 weeks but typically stop after 8 weeks then the compliance rate is 80%. It is used to determine the true cost to the patient.
As such the output table showing ‘Total Market Value’ is generated by multiplying the number of cases by the market price by the compliance rate.
The compliance rate can have any value from 0 to 100% (although, of course, 0% would be nonsensical!).
The epidemiological data is of course based on the persons diagnosed to have the condition. However, in some countries the availability of health care may be such that the actual number of diagnosed cases may be less than the total cases existing. Diabetes is a classic example of this in poorer countries. To get an estimate of the total market size (and potential value if diagnostics were improved) you can enter what is thought to be the diagnosed rate and the model will then estimate the total number of cases taking the diagnosed rate into account.
Clearly one would increase the diagnosed rate over time if the expectation is that the availability of health care facilities would improve over that time period.
The model adjusts the known epidemiological rate by the diagnosed rate to get the total market rate. That is, known diagnosed rate =10 cases per 100. Diagnosed rate is thought to be 50%. Therefore real number of cases per 100 is 10/.5 = 20 cases.
Note when calculating market value diagnosed rate is applied. As such with a market price of $100, compliance rate of 80% and a diagnosed rate of 50% the market value would be $100 * 80% compliance = $80 * (10 cases / 50% diagnosed rate = 20) = $80 * 20 cases = $160
If diagnosed rate is set to 100% then it has no effect at all.
This is included to allow more targeted market analysis, and works with the next column (Brand Price) as explained below.
Quite simply this is the share of patients with this condition that use a particular treatment course/brand. It can range from 1% to 100%
The Button ‘Brand Share of Cases’ on the ‘Table Page’ uses this variable. It takes the total cases and then simply multiplies that by the brand share to give the number of cases buying the specific brand being considered.
This is the price in US$s of the brand being focused on (as compared with the average market price in the first column)
This is used to calculate the market value of brand given its share of cases. (Previous column)
So it is total cases with condition (after adjusting for diagnosed rate if less than 100%) multiplied by the brand’s market share (previous column) multiplied by the brand price (this column) multiplied by the compliance rate.
For all 5 parameters they can be individually adjusted as follows
Same rate for all years (Option 1)
In this case enter the value into the grey row under the column for that variable and then press the ‘apply’ button just below it. The program will then fill in all cells for years 2005 to 2027 with that value, overwriting any values already in those cells.
Enter Data for each year
In this case simply enter the values into the appropriate cells. As this is an Excel Spreadsheet you can copy and paste from another source if available. Do check format however, note that Market Price and Brand price are the cost in US Dollars per year (or part thereof) of treatment. The other three columns are all percentages.
Data for some of the years only (Option 2)
If you have data for only some of the years then enter the values you have into the appropriate year cells and also ensure that there is a value in the very first and very last years. The press ‘fill’ and the program will fill in for the intervening years on a linear basis.
Saving/Restoring a Scenario
As you might be doing analysis for different markets or conditions a scenario you have set up for a specific market/condition should be saved by clicking on the ‘Save Scenario’ button at the top right. This scenario will then be automatically reloaded when you return to that market/condition.
You can try different scenarios for the same country/condition without saving but it is advisable to save at least one which you can return by pressing the ‘Restore Scenario’ button.
Next Manual Section: Adding Your Own Epidemiological Data