A comprehensive manual on how to use the model is provided in a separate set of pages.
You are advised to read it so as to maximize the use of this model.

This section provides an overview/quick reference guide of the model

There are 7 sheets to the Workbook

  1. Dashboard (opening screen)

  2. Set Parameters

  3. Add your own Epidemiological Data

  4. Output Tables (by 5 yr age groups and gender)

    1. Population profile

    2. Incidence/Prevalence rates

    3. Total Cases

    4. Total Market Value

    5. Brand Share

    6. Brand Market Value

  5. Charts (for each of the above tables)

  6. Affordability Analysis - testing any number of scenarios in terms of price and funding

  7. Report - preset charts ready for annotation.

You can select between them by clicking on the tab at the bottom of the screen - or using the appropriate buttons on the sheets

Below is a brief description of each, but more detail is available in the full manual for the Model - click here for access.



This is where you select the country and condition to focus on (if you have purchased only one country and one condition then clearly there is no options for those two variables

In addition you define what the summary age groups are - the model solves for all age groups but you might like to aggravate some into 4 groups eg 0 to 14, 15 to 24 etc.

Finally you select the years to be displayed in the output tables and charts and report. You can have all but often it is better to display every 5th year

Set Parameters


Here you define the key variables - that is Market average price, Compliance Rate, Diagnosed rate, your brand share and your brand price. Once this table is completed for a country/condition it can be saved and you can reload it when you return to this country/condition combination.

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Adding your own EPI DATA:

This is where you can input your own epidemiological data to apply to the underlying demographic and household income and expenditure data included in the model. This ensures confidentiality of your data as it does not leave your office.

Ideally you have a complete data set by age and year - but the model can handle partial data sets and can also provide forecasts by age group using either a linear or power function.

You can save, recall and modify this table as often as you need.

Output TABLEs

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This is an output page. Your options on this page are in terms of the data displayed. You can select to show by age and gender:

  1. The base population,

  2. Incidence/Prevalence rates,

  3. Total cases,

  4. Total market value (using average market price set in the first column of the scenario sheet as well as compliance rate),

  5. Brand share of cases and

  6. brand revenue (using the brand Price)

  7. Patient access (affordability) for a specific funding and brand scenario as specified on this page in the orange box.

The table updates almost instantaneously between selections.

You can also select to see a line chart of the same data.


Chart example.JPG

This shows basic charts for whatever table is currently selected.

Within that you can select to display total, male or female.

In this example ‘summary’ has been selected in the green box and ‘Total’ in the blue box so it plots only the totals of the summary age group. If ‘detail’ had been selected then there would be a line for each age group (0-4 yr; 5-9 yr etc)

As such you have a lot of flexibility to review the data.

Being excel you can copy and paste the chart into your own workbook at any time.

Affordability Analysis - Setting Up Scenarios

Afford setup.JPG

Having determined the size of the relevant population, the incidence rate of the condition being considered, and the number of cases each year (by age and gender) the next step is determine what proportion and number of persons that can afford the treatment at a specific price and under a specific funding scenario.

This involves selecting the sheet ‘Affordability’ or clicking on the button labeled ‘Go to Affordability Analysis’ in the Table Sheet. You should not go to ‘Affordability’ analysis until you have set up an analysis and run the tables for that. Otherwise the correct data will not be loaded.

The Affordability analysis involves two stages - setting parameters shown here, and the running the Scenarios (typically around 25 different solutions) and reviewing the results.

Affordability Analysis - Evaluation of scenarios

The model runs the number of scenarios defined (for example 5 different price points and 5 different funding scenarios results in 25 solutions). These are then displayed as tables on the Affordability sheet (as shown below) and the first set of tables show the relationship between price, number of patients that can afford the treatment at that price under the funding scenario shown on the vertical axis of the tables (In this instance the proportion of household savings and discretionary spending devoted to paying for this treatment).

The model handles two key funding sources -

  1. taking it from the annual household expenditure if the treatment is chronic and low cost or

  2. if expensive and one off (e.g. cancers) then it will need bulk funding from savings and discretionary spending (as annual household health spend will not typically be sufficient to cover the cost of such treatments except for the very wealthiest of families).

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Afford Table detail.JPG

Review Affordability Analysis Results

The user can then take the best solution and insert the price and funding scenario into the brown’ section (Affordability Evaluation) in the Tables sheet and see the detail of that selection by year for every age/gender segment.

Note that the table format changes slightly with the affordability analysis being inserted in the top of the table set.


Finally a Report Sheet is created with tables and charts covering a range of issues related to the analysis pre filed.

You can select to save this sheet as a separate workbook in Excel and then annotate it etc

The Report always relates to the latest solution run.

Report pages.jpg